Election Integrity Curent Awareness

Election Integrity for America

Election Integrity: Most Voters Expect Cheating Will Affect 2024 Outcome

Wednesday, June 14, 2023 (Source: Rasmussen Reports dated June 14, 2023).

A majority of voters continue to suspect widespread election fraud, and expect cheating at the ballot box to influence the 2024 presidential election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters believe cheating is likely to affect the outcome of the next presidential election, including 30% who think it’s Very Likely. Forty-one percent (41%) say election cheating is unlikely to affect the 2024 outcome, including 24% who consider it Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Voter Fraud?

The Heritage Foundation has compiled a database of more than 1,400 recent proven cases of election fraud, which have resulted in more than 1,200 criminal convictions. Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters believe it is likely that state and federal officials are ignoring evidence of widespread election fraud, including 36% who think it’s Very Likely. Forty percent (40%) say it’s unlikely officials are ignoring election fraud, including 27% who view it as Not At All Likely. In April, 62% believed it likely that evidence of election fraud was being ignored by officials.

The survey of 1,003 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 7-8 and 11, 2023 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

A majority (52%) of voters now believe that cheating likely affected the outcomes of some races in last year's midterm elections, including 30% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-eight percent (38%) don’t think last year’s midterm elections were affected by cheating, including 25% who view it as Not At All Likely. Another 10% are not sure. In April, 60% believed the 2022 midterms had been affected by cheating.

Election Integrity Trust

On the question of which party they trust more to protect the integrity of elections, voters are almost evenly divided, with 40% saying they trust Republicans more and 39% trusting Democrats more, while another 20% are not sure. This mostly reflects the partisan division of the electorate, as 74% of both Democrats and Republicans trust their own party more to protect election integrity.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% trust Republicans more and 29% trust Democrats more to protect the integrity of elections.Republicans are significantly more likely than other voters to suspect cheating in elections. For example, while 43% of Republicans think it’s Very Likely last year’s midterm election outcomes were affected by cheating, only 23% of Democrats and 24% of unaffiliated voters share that opinion. Similarly, 69% of Republicans believe it is at least somewhat likely that cheating will affect the outcome of the next presidential election, compared to 46% of Democrats and 47% of unaffiliated voters.

Election Cheating

This difference is clearest when it comes to suspicions that election cheating is being covered up. A majority (51%) of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely that state and federal officials are ignoring evidence of widespread election fraud, compared to 28% of Democrats and 30% of unaffiliated voters.There is not a very wide “gender gap” on these questions, although men (44%) are more likely than women voters (38%) to say they trust Republicans more to protect the integrity of elections.

Majorities of every racial category – 57% of whites, 54% of black voters and 53% of other minorities – consider it at least somewhat likely that officials are ignoring evidence of widespread election fraud. Black voters are least likely to trust Republicans to protect election integrity.

Suspicions of election cheating are highest among voters under 40. Voters 65 and older are most likely to say they trust Republicans more to protect the integrity of elections.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, those in the highest bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – are most likely to trust Democrats to protect election integrity.

President Joe Biden’s strongest supporters are least worried about cheating in elections. Among voters who Strongly Approve of Biden’s job performance as president, only 32% consider it at least somewhat likely that cheating will affect the outcome of the next presidential election. By contrast, among those who Strongly Disapprove of Biden’s performance, 84% think it’s at least somewhat likely the 2024 outcome will be affected by cheating.